3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,317 sqft ·
Built 2010
· Manufactured
· Active
· 84 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,464/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$382
Tax + insurance
−$121
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$307
Net cashflow
$653/mo
Annual
$7,841/yr
Cap rate
17.06%
Cash-on-cash
38.47%
DSCR
2.71
1% rule
2.01%
Cash to close
$20,384
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $653 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $503 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#289 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
Vernon Parish (rural): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #18 of 98 in LA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.6%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Vernon Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Vernon County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YNT0W2FV1QH0A6
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29