3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,778 sqft ·
Built 2004
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 68 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,099/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,045
Tax + insurance
−$940
HOA
−$57
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$651
Net cashflow
$-594/mo
Annual
$-7,133/yr
Cap rate
4.46%
Cash-on-cash
-6.53%
DSCR
0.71
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$109,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-594 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (26.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (20.5% below list).
It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $285k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#46 in FL, #867 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D-.
Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Champion Elementary School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 584 students, 70% FRL); David C. Hinson Sr. Middle School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 950 students, 52% FRL); Mainland High School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,855 students, 64% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $135k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
CashFlowRE · CFR-YPAG9CEFN18VH3
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29