388 Grannis Rd

Constantia, NY 13167

$269,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,790 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,573/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$553
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-725/mo
• Annual: $-8,702/yr
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.51%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-725 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (47.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (41.7% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $142k (47.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#672 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aura A Cole Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 401 students, 56% FRL); Central Square Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 833 students, 45% FRL); Paul V Moore High School (math 91% / reading 75%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,101 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 33% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $270k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.