502 Maple St

Cozad, NE 69130

$70,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,076/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $394/mo
• Annual: $4,728/yr
• Cap rate: 13.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.12%
• DSCR: 2.07
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#22 in NE, #1,638 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cozad Community Schools (town): math 43% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #90 of 111 in NE (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cozad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #319 of 502 statewide, top 68%, 428 students, 50% FRL); Cozad Middle School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #65 of 128 statewide, top 53%, 197 students, 55% FRL); Cozad High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #184 of 261 statewide, top 76%, 260 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 61 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dawson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $50k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.0% in Cozad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.