12786 County Road 8870

Brandsville, MO 65775

$79,500C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1972 · Other · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $871/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $138/mo
• Annual: $1,662/yr
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.47%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $22,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($871 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#974 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Glenwood R-VIII (rural): math 30% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 535 in MO (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Glenwood Elem. (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 236 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.