2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
768 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 10 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$978/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$341
Tax + insurance
−$135
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$205
Net cashflow
$297/mo
Annual
$3,567/yr
Cap rate
11.78%
Cash-on-cash
19.60%
DSCR
1.87
1% rule
1.51%
Cash to close
$18,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($978 rent vs $65k).
Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YRATKZ3ARTXYY1
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29