4735 Government St #308

Baton Rouge, LA 70806

$95,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 971 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Pending · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-340/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-340/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $90k (5.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#24 in LA, #4,535 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment D-.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 20 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 7351% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Baton Rouge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?