5 Oxwood Cir

New Oxford, PA 17350

$205,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1996 · Other · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,114/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $222/mo
• Annual: $2,666/yr
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.64%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#944 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Conewago Valley SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.