29565 W Trancas Dr

Cathedral City, CA 92234

$498,800D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,425 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,733/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,616
• Tax + insurance: −$638
• HOA: −$995
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$994
• Net cashflow: $-510/mo
• Annual: $-6,119/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $139,664

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $409k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $473k (5.1% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $409k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#344 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rio Vista Elementary (690 students, 96% FRL); James Workman Middle (1,028 students, 99% FRL); Cathedral City High (math 25% / reading 61%, grade F, #460 of 1,170 statewide, top 40%, 1,395 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 529 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $344k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,733/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 1682% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.