101 Freeway Dr

Napa, CA 94558

$5,750,000F

None bd · None ba · 22,848 sqft · Built 1973 · Townhouse · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$30,154
• Tax + insurance: −$9,583
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-37,492/mo
• Annual: $-449,908/yr
• Cap rate: -1.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -27.94%
• DSCR: -0.24
• 1% rule: 0.05%
• Cash to close: $1,610,000

Investor read

• This is a townhouse listed at $5.75M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37k ($-450k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (94.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (95.1% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $284k (95.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $40k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $172k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -1.5% vs local median 2.0% in Napa — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.