17851 Lionheart Rd

Deerwood, TX 77306

$242,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-257/mo
• Annual: $-3,082/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $68,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $243k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.