125 Love Grove Church Rd

Seven Lakes, NC 27376

$389,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,780 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,831/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,405/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $109,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (27.4% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $283k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#91 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West End Elementary (math 75% / reading 69%, grade A-, #73 of 1,410 statewide, top 6%, 441 students, 33% FRL); West Pine Middle (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #37 of 475 statewide, top 8%, 688 students, 28% FRL); Pinecrest High (math 66% / reading 72%, grade B, #131 of 535 statewide, top 25%, 2,221 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Moore County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 15496% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Seven Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.