23799 Holt Rd

Athens, AL 35613

$279,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,326 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $92/mo
• Annual: $1,101/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #4,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Limestone County (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 129 in AL (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 363 students, 51% FRL); Ardmore High School (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #107 of 305 statewide, top 36%, 993 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 806 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $280k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.6% in Athens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.