2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,404 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Manufactured
· Active
· 79 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,550/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$710
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$745
Net cashflow
$1,204/mo
Annual
$14,445/yr
Cap rate
17.81%
Cash-on-cash
41.12%
DSCR
2.83
1% rule
2.09%
Cash to close
$47,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $170k).
It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $3,550/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YTMFMA930JAYQE
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29