4240 Steamboat Bnd #403

McGregor, FL 33919

$144,900C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · Built 1986 · Condo · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,261/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$633
• HOA: −$481
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-88/mo
• Annual: $-1,050/yr
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.03%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (10.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#380 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.8%/yr); 619 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $145k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 1.1% in McGregor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?