106 S Chilson St

Bay City, MI 48706

$94,900B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,690/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $1,469/mo
• Annual: $17,631/yr
• Cap rate: 24.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.35%
• DSCR: 3.95
• 1% rule: 2.83%
• Cash to close: $26,572

Investor read

• This is a 1×3bd/1.0ba + 1×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $735/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.