113 Prospect St

Fredonia, NY 14063

$169,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-137/mo
• Annual: $-1,641/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (17.2% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in NY, #1,446 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Fredonia Central School District (town): math 55% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #376 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $169k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Fredonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.