3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,116 sqft ·
Built 1993
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 61 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,514/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$878
Tax + insurance
−$350
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$318
Net cashflow
$-33/mo
Annual
$-392/yr
Cap rate
6.53%
Cash-on-cash
0.86%
DSCR
1.04
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$46,900
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $168k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-392/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (3.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (9.6% below list).
It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $151k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Indianapolis Public Schools (urban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #286 of 301 in IN (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Center For Inquiry School 27 (math 25% / reading 29%, grade F, #737 of 994 statewide, top 76%, 525 students, 51% FRL); H L Harshman Middle School (math 3% / reading 16%, grade F, #316 of 330 statewide, top 96%, 549 students, 84% FRL); Arsenal Technical High School (math 6% / reading 27%, grade F, #353 of 369 statewide, top 96%, 2,366 students, 74% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,906 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $16k; list at $168k implies a 981% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Indianapolis city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YVK6XS95FX3SH5
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29