18 Powerline Ln

Staatsburg, NY 12580

$430,000B+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,381 sqft · Built 1963 · MultiFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$952
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,150
• Net cashflow: $8,643/mo
• Annual: $103,715/yr
• Cap rate: 30.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.14%
• DSCR: 4.83
• 1% rule: 3.49%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($104k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $430k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $417k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $297k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 30.4% vs local median 2.5% in Staatsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.