3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,990 sqft ·
Built 2000
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 78 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$18,985/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,982
Tax + insurance
−$1,539
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,987
Net cashflow
$8,478/mo
Annual
$101,731/yr
Cap rate
17.54%
Cash-on-cash
40.17%
DSCR
2.79
1% rule
2.00%
Cash to close
$266,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $950k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($102k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $950k).
It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($893k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $893k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: The Sanibel School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 2,144 statewide, top 0%, 289 students, 12% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: 562 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $712k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 2.5% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29