487 Grennie Morrow Rd

Newton, MS 39336

$64,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$338
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $382/mo
• Annual: $4,583/yr
• Cap rate: 13.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.38%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $18,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($446 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#292 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton Municipal School District (town): math 19% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #91 of 130 in MS (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.