3563 S Saint Lucie Dr

Winter Springs, FL 32707

$335,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,591 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,530/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$36
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-980/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $93,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-980/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (24.5% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $253k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#261 in FL, #4,187 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Red Bug Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 782 students, 50% FRL); Lake Howell High School (math 36% / reading 49%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 2,205 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $335k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Winter Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.