12029 Five Waters Cir

Fort Myers, FL 33913

$399,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,857 sqft · Built 2015 · Condo · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,635/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$421
• HOA: −$399
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$973
• Net cashflow: $749/mo
• Annual: $8,984/yr
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $749 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $399k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $375k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Treeline Elementary School (math 51% / reading 51%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 1,135 students, 46% FRL); Gateway High School (math 39% / reading 48%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 1,981 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 811 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,635/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 276% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.