126 Capstan Ave

Beachwood, NJ 08722

$289,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,033 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,361/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$464
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $676/mo
• Annual: $8,107/yr
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.02%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $285k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#203 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Beach Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #731 of 1,303 statewide, top 59%, 401 students, 41% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School South (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 1,048 students, 36% FRL); Toms River High School South (math 18% / reading 43%, grade F, #279 of 399 statewide, top 71%, 1,359 students, 27% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $186k; list at $289k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.5% in Beachwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.