7013 Northumberland Hwy

Heathsville, VA 22473

$195,900D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,730 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,431/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,027
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-101/mo
• Annual: $-1,218/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $54,852

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#510 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northumberland Elementary (math 52% / reading 60%, grade C+, #637 of 1,108 statewide, top 58%, 541 students, 91% FRL); Northumberland Middle (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 276 students, 90% FRL); Northumberland High (math 42% / reading 77%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 383 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 50% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 243 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.5% in Heathsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.