3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,520 sqft ·
Built 2013
· Townhouse
· Active
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,218/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,269
Tax + insurance
−$151
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$466
Net cashflow
$332/mo
Annual
$3,981/yr
Cap rate
7.94%
Cash-on-cash
5.87%
DSCR
1.26
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$67,760
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $242k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (8.3% below list).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $222k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in VA, #3,458 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
West Point Public School District (town): math 63% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #17 of 131 in VA (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
Zoned schools: West Point Elementary (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #171 of 1,108 statewide, top 17%, 370 students, 40% FRL); West Point Middle/High (math 57% / reading 80%, grade B, #178 of 319 statewide, top 56%, 440 students, 34% FRL).
Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in King William County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $178k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in West Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YX89ERCJHMBVRV
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29