2149 Sparrow Rd

Pocono Mountain Lake Estates, PA 18324

$225,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$313
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-267/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-267/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,507 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.