141 Wallen Ranch Rd

Trinity Village, CA 95527

$130,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,166/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-545/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-545/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (10.3% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,153 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime D-.
• Burnt Ranch Elementary (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #614 of 1,400 in CA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.