39678 Road 425b #35

Oakhurst, CA 93644

$89,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1973 · Other · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,819/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $913/mo
• Annual: $10,953/yr
• Cap rate: 18.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.95%
• DSCR: 2.96
• 1% rule: 2.04%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $913 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 3.5% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.