321 Ash St

Ardmore, OK 73401

$200,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,414/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-85/mo
• Annual: $-1,023/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (29.3% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $141k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#447 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Ardmore (town): math 12% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #241 of 270 in OK (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $200k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.6% in Ardmore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.