49 N Lake Ave

Fox Lake, IL 60020

$479,000C

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,667 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,280/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax + insurance: −$909
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,319
• Net cashflow: $1,541/mo
• Annual: $18,487/yr
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.78%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $134,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $479k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $479k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $465k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#247 in IL, #4,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety F.
• Grant Chsd 124 (suburban): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #296 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grant Community High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #247 of 693 statewide, top 36%, 1,837 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $315k; list at $479k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $134k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 6.0% in Fox Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.