146 S Central Ave

Burlington, IA 52601

$63,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,465 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,269/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $578/mo
• Annual: $6,936/yr
• Cap rate: 17.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.32%
• DSCR: 2.75
• 1% rule: 2.01%
• Cash to close: $17,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $63k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $63k).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#287 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Burlington Community School District (town): math 42% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #286 of 289 in IA (top 99%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 53 units permitted in Des Moines County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Des Moines County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 6.0% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.