178 Main St

Philmont, NY 12565

$390,000B

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,503 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,498
• Net cashflow: $3,156/mo
• Annual: $37,871/yr
• Cap rate: 16.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.68%
• DSCR: 2.54
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive. Per door: $789/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $390k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $384k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#958 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $390k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.