58 Kelder Hwy

Accord, NY 12461

$550,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,185/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$723
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $-1,091/mo
• Annual: $-13,096/yr
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.50%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (42.1% below list).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $319k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#638 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 91% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onteora Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $550k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.