5459 South St

Vermilion, OH 44089

$345,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,925 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,825/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-687/mo
• Annual: $-8,248/yr
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.54%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $96,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-687 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (47.1% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $182k (47.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vermilion Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #670 of 1,584 statewide, top 45%, 534 students, 37% FRL); Sailorway Middle School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B+, #221 of 654 statewide, top 35%, 507 students, 36% FRL); Vermilion High School (math 44% / reading 53%, grade D, #427 of 781 statewide, top 55%, 674 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 6.2% in Vermilion — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.