109 PR 5881a

Jewett, TX 75846

$99,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 433 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,135/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $196/mo
• Annual: $2,355/yr
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 433 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,223 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, schools F, crime F.
• Groesbeck ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 433 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.