2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,120 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 288 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$599/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$123
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$126
Net cashflow
$88/mo
Annual
$1,055/yr
Cap rate
8.40%
Cash-on-cash
7.53%
DSCR
1.34
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$14,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($599 rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $974 of equity ($346 loan paydown + $628 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,297 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
Tulia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #768 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
Swisher County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z2D36QENTEFEYC
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29