38111 Manzanita Mountain Ln

Anza, CA 92539

$130,000F

None bd · None ba · 6,000 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $0/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$0
• Net cashflow: $-850/mo
• Annual: $-10,205/yr
• Cap rate: -1.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -28.04%
• DSCR: -0.25
• 1% rule: 0.00%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-850 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,301 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -1.6% vs local median 3.5% in Anza — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.