2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,268 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 200 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$524
Tax + insurance
−$247
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$420
Net cashflow
$809/mo
Annual
$9,708/yr
Cap rate
16.00%
Cash-on-cash
34.67%
DSCR
2.54
1% rule
2.00%
Cash to close
$28,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $809 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#347 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.8% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z31M6P3SZQ858Y
· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29