204 E Odell St

Marionville, MO 65705

$55,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 874 sqft · Built 1945 · Other · Active · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $725/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$152
• Net cashflow: $223/mo
• Annual: $2,681/yr
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.41%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($725 rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#130 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marionville R-IX (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 324 in MO (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.