1236 Pine Ridge Cir W Unit G3

East Lake, FL 34688

$185,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 979 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,690/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$444
• HOA: −$357
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-436/mo
• Annual: $-5,229/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-436 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (8.6% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#660 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Woods Elementary School (math 85% / reading 83%, grade A+, #55 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 709 students, 24% FRL); Tarpon Springs Middle School (math 59% / reading 61%, grade B, #135 of 571 statewide, top 24%, 644 students, 50% FRL); East Lake High School (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 2,286 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pinellas average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.3% in East Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.