23 Topeka Jayess Rd

Jayess, MS 39641

$98,500C+

2 bd · 0.5 ba · 975 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $189/mo
• Annual: $2,270/yr
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $27,580

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($681 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lawrence County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #85 of 130 in MS (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Topeka Tilton Attendance Center (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #192 of 375 statewide, top 52%, 313 students, 99% FRL); Rod Paige Middle School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #109 of 179 statewide, top 62%, 259 students, 99% FRL); Lawrence County High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #130 of 197 statewide, top 68%, 535 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP.
• Lawrence County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $98k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.