2165 Gondola Dr

Vamo, FL 34238

$265,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$190
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-253/mo
• Annual: $-3,040/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.10%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $353 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#260 in FL, #4,147 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Nokomis School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,411 students, 35% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-8.2%/yr); 490 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $265k implies a 982% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.