510 Saddlebrook Dr #105

San Jose, CA 95136

$349,500D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,833
• Tax + insurance: −$582
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$728
• Net cashflow: $325/mo
• Annual: $3,902/yr
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $97,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (0.7% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $339k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Oak Grove Elementary (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #339 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hayes Elementary (477 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 40% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $350k implies a 694% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.