41 Orchard St

Sunbury, NC 27979

$104,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,515 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,671/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $647/mo
• Annual: $7,762/yr
• Cap rate: 13.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.43%
• DSCR: 2.18
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#602 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gates County Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #129 of 178 in NC (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: T S Cooper Elementary (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 174 students, 59% FRL); Gates County Senior High (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #374 of 535 statewide, top 71%, 479 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Gates County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gates County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.