4501 Q St

Bakersfield, CA 93301

$76,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,661/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$401
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $841/mo
• Annual: $10,090/yr
• Cap rate: 19.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.11%
• DSCR: 3.10
• 1% rule: 2.17%
• Cash to close: $21,420

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $841 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $529 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stella I. Hills Elementary (665 students, 96% FRL); Emerson Middle (754 students, 93% FRL); North High (reading 75%, 2,214 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.1%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $76k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,661/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 1296% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.