815-819 River St

Fitchburg, MA 01420

$549,000C

15 bd · 10.5 ba · 2,972 sqft · Built 1860 · MultiFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax + insurance: −$915
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,449
• Net cashflow: $1,656/mo
• Annual: $19,874/yr
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.93%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $153,720

Investor read

• This is a 2×5bd/3.5ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $549k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $552/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $549k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($516k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $516k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#137 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools D-.
• Fitchburg (suburban): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #282 of 302 in MA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $455k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.0% in Fitchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,899/mo this rent would consume 114% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1763% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Cabinets appear to be in good condition.
• Moderate: Bathroom fixtures — Dated fixtures and peeling wallpaper suggest a need for updates.
• Moderate: Bathroom flooring — Carpet in one bathroom looks worn and may need replacement.
• Minor: Landscaping — Minimal landscaping and snow on the ground suggest a need for spring cleanup and landscaping improvements.
• Unknown: Exterior siding — No visible damage, but cannot confirm condition from exterior photos.
• Unknown: Foundation/structure — No visible issues from exterior photos, but cannot confirm condition from interior photos.