825 Commerce Blvd

Riverdale, GA 30296

$196,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,834/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax + insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$87
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-5/mo
• Annual: $-60/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $54,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $196k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-60/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (6.4% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#100 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lake Ridge Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,092 of 1,228 statewide, top 91%, 505 students, 90% FRL); Kendrick Middle School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #333 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 696 students, 90% FRL); Riverdale High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #315 of 424 statewide, top 76%, 1,333 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?