188 Settlers Hill Rd

Southbury, CT 06488

$965,000D-

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,473 sqft · Built 1978 · MultiFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,829/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,061
• Tax + insurance: −$1,475
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,644
• Net cashflow: $-351/mo
• Annual: $-4,213/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $270,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath multifamily listed at $965k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $903k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $783k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($936k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $783k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 15 (suburban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #46 of 153 in CT (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Long Meadow Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #129 of 553 statewide, top 23%, 515 students, 10% FRL); Pomperaug Regional High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #37 of 194 statewide, top 19%, 1,039 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 8 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $695k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.