249 Wiley England Rd

Sunbright, TN 37872

$69,999B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $906/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $285/mo
• Annual: $3,416/yr
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.43%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($906 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#419 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 14% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #128 of 139 in TN (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Middle School (math 10% / reading 14%, grade F, #242 of 333 statewide, top 74%, 256 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.
• Morgan County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.5% in Sunbright — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.